Interesting but scary

 BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP have this week published their fourth ‘Energy Outlook’.

Although not exactly the darlings of the SRI community, BP should none the less be congratulated for offering investors useful insight into the world of Big Oil and for making a plethora of data and analysis available to download.

The information published shows a mixed picture.  Amongst their expectations are – to précis –  ‘growth in energy consumption will slow over the next 22 years’, which, whilst welcome,  is of course rather different from expecting it to peak or actually ‘slow down’.  The reports also indicate a further mixed message for SRI investors, indicating that ‘renewables will increase but fossil fuels will be fighting fit for many years to come’.

As such their views indicate a future which is ‘broadly alarming but with glimmers of hope’ whereas ‘broadly hopeful with glimmers of alarm’ would have been a more enjoyable read.

The main Weblink and directory of downloads is available here.

Some of the predictions that I found most ‘interesting’ – and which are food for thought for investors – are:

From the BP Energy Outlook Factsheet 2035:

• World energy demand will be 41% higher in 2035 with India and China accounting for half the growth…
• Global energy intensity in 2035 is almost half (48%) of what it was in 1995 and 36% lower than 2012. However, global energy per capita use will increase by 14%.
•  Renewables (including biofuels) account for 7% of total demand in 2035, compared to just 2% today. By 2035, 14% of world electricity is from renewable sources, up from just 5% in 2012.
• All fuels experience growth, with the fastest in renewables (+6.4% p.a.) while hydro (+1.8% p.a.) and nuclear (+1.9% p.a.) grow faster that total energy demand. Among fossil fuels, natural gas is the fastest (+1.9% p.a.) followed by coal (+1.1% p.a.) and oil (+0.8% p.a.).

Source: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/Energy-Outlook/Energy_Outlook_insights_2035.pdf

Their ‘Energy Outlook Booklet’ concludes with the following ‘summarising’ bullet points…

Meeting the global energy challenge

Sufficient and available?

…. Yes – new energy sources and efficiency improvements

Secure and reliable?

…. Mixed – improving for some, a concern for others

Sustainable?

…. Room for improvement

Sources:

Energy Outlook 2035 booklet:  http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/Energy-Outlook/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf bp.com/energyoutlook

15 January 2013 press release: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/press/press-releases/energy-outlook-2035.html

Downloads: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html

#BPstats, Energy Outlook 2035,  © BP 2014